AKTRIN'S MONITOR FOR AMERICAN CONSUMER SPENDING ON FURNITURE AND BEDDING

Furniture World Magazine

Growth of the US economy stood at a healthy 5% (at annual rates) during the first quarter of 2000. Consumer spending has been supported by the wealth effect of rising asset prices, low inflation, low interest rates and – most importantly – by the good employment market and rising incomes. Real consumer spending surged by an annualized 8.3% in the first quarter, and an amazing 5.5% over the last two years. However, there are some signs which indicate a cooling of the economy. Higher interest rates will reduce the U.S. economy to a more sustainable pace next year. Growth in real gross domestic product may slide to 2.7 percent in 2001 from 4.2 percent this year. Influenced by the Fed's rate campaign, mortgage rates have been rising. Thirty-year mortgages are now at 8.6 percent, up more than a full percentage point from a year ago. It is therefore not surprising that new home sales have been falling for two consecutive months and residential construction – both single family houses and apartments – is decreasing. Largely as a result of rising interest rates, we are less optimistic about the stock market which has been one of the main drivers behind the current consumer demand. Retail sales are less robust than at the beginning of this year. Nevertheless, the overall consumption outlook remains favorable for the remainder of 2000 and we do not expect growth of real consumer spending to decelerate below 4.5 percent this year. Next year, consumer spending may decline to 3.1 percent. As of 1999 U.S. furniture consumption stood at $ 60.7 billion, up 6.5 percent from the previous year. For this year, we expect a similar increase (6.2 percent) bringing the market valuation to $ 64.4 billion. In conjunction with the general cooling of the economy, furniture consumption will grow only at an estimated pace of 3.4 percent next year. If our prediction is correct, the market would reach $ 66.7 billion. There is hardly any price inflation for furniture. Therefore, the indicated annual growth rates represent predominantly real (volume) increases.   Atlanta, GA June 2000: The 52nd edition of the Boston Curtain & Drapery Show, co-produced by Messe Frankfurt and Window Fashions magazine, and sponsored by the Boston Curtain & Drapery Club, will be held October 14-15, 2000 at the Rhode Island Convention Center in Providence, RI. For the first time, the event is held on dates in the fall rather than the traditional early February/March pattern. The organizers followed a broad consensus of exhibitors and attendees who favored this positioning. The market response to fall timing has been very positive. The available space was 90% sold out four months prior to the opening of the event. Buyer attendance at this year's events is expected to far exceed past levels. An anticipated 50+ exhibitors will fill some 20,000 gross square feet of space in the center's exhibition area. Exhibiting manufacturers and distributors will display a wide variety of their newest lines including hard and soft window treatments, decorative accessories, blinds, shades, shutters, motorization products, fabrics, textile products, wallcoverings, awnings and workroom supplies. Historically, the show draws 1,300 retailers and designers from the Northeast and Canada to see the latest in the window coverings market. Since Providence is a central location, attendees are able to easily travel from the traditional New England states, New York City, upstate New York and Canada. The location of major airports in Boston and Providence plus good thoroughfares from the west and north provide easy routes to the convention site. The new fall dates help to alleviate the snow problems experienced at many past events in the early part of the year. For out-of-region participants, the timing is perfect to experience the region at its best - the "Indian Summer" season. A comprehensive educational seminar program is designed in a special three-day format, starting on Friday, October 13 and continues Saturday and Sunday mornings. The top experts in window coverings will guide participants on an educational journey that features future colors and trends, decorating and installation techniques, global market information and general business topics created to increase designers' and retailers' business acumen. With its stately homes on picturesque streets, superb restaurants, cultural activities and coastal atmosphere, Providence becomes a lovely host city for the Boston Curtain & Drapery Show. The complete Attendee Brochure will be mailed in late June with a guide to all events. For more information, please contact:   Messe Frankfurt, Inc. Attn: Bryan Reid 1600 Parkwood Circle, Suite 515 Atlanta, GA 30339 Tel: 770-984-8016 Fax: 770-984-8023 E-Mail: info@usa.messefrankfurt.com Website: www.usa.messefrankfurt.com   Atlanta, GA, June, 2000: The largest and most comprehensive trade show for the window coverings industry, the International Window Coverings EXPO, will be held March 23-25, 2001 in fabulous New Orleans, LA. Co-producers, Messe Frankfurt and Window Fashions magazine, selected the location based on the results of exhibitor and buyer surveys conducted at the recent shows. Most of the largest exhibitors have already confirmed space in New Orleans including industry leaders: Springs Window Fashions, Kirsch/Levolor, Comfortex, Somfy Systems, BTX Window Automation, Eclipse Blind Systems, and Rollease Inc. The show is expected to exceed its customary 140,000 gross square foot size with an anticipated 250 exhibitors from 15 countries. Product displays will include hard and soft window coverings, decorative drapery hardware, wallcoverings, area rugs, fabrics and textile products, blinds, shutters, shading systems, decorative accents and accessories, motorization, workroom supplies and equipment, manufacturing equipment, awnings, merchandising and sales tools and computer technology. The show is the premier event in the Western Hemisphere and captures 8,000+ retailers and designers who find the show a Mecca for the kinds of products they use in their businesses. Attendees are also attracted to the 60+ seminars that are held in conjunction with the exhibits. The educational program of the event is regarded as the industry's top seminars with high-level professional speakers, all of whom are industry experts. Topics include future colors and trends, decorating and installation techniques, global market information and general business topics to increase participants' selling opportunities. Special design displays will be an unusual and eye-catching addition to the convention and will provide attendees a glimpse of the future through creative ways to show colors and trends for 2001/2002. Exhibitors have an opportunity for added visibility through product use within these design areas. Special award presentations are being planned as well. To add to the overall excitement of this stellar event, the host city of New Orleans becomes an exciting backdrop to the event's success. With an abundance of culinary delights, fabulous nightlife, brand name entertainment and cultural activities, the 2001 show promises to be a great draw for exhibitors and attendees. The attendee brochure, which includes a complete guide to the show's exhibitors, events and seminars, will be mailed in December to visitors. For more information, please contact: Messe Frankfurt, Inc. Attn: Bryan Reid 1600 Parkwood Circle, Ste. 515 Atlanta, GA 30339 Tel: 770-984-8016 Fax: 770-984-8023 E-mail: info@usa.messefrankfurt.com Website: www.usa.messefrankfurt.com Window Fashions magazine Attn: Michelle Larson 4215 White Bear Pkwy., Ste. 100 St. Paul, MN 55110-7635 Tel: 651-293-1544 Fax: 651-653-4308 E-mail: bcarlson@gwmcnamara.com     Atlanta, GA June, 2000: The Pacific Home Fashion Fair celebrates its 17th year on the West Coast and continues a second year in conjunction with the Paint & Decorating Show. Co-producers Messe Frankfurt and Window Fashions magazine welcome the Paint & Decorating Retailers Association, which adds an additional element of paint and paint sundry products to the customary mix of window and wallcoverings. The show will be held February 1-2, 2001 at the Riviera Hotel and Casino in exciting Las Vegas, NV, with a full seminar program covering the spectrum of the two events scheduled for January 31 – February 1. The two shows were combined for the first time this year after the organizer's market research indicated a very strong cross buying relationship between window coverings, wallcoverigns and paint retailers. After the very successful first combined event this January, enthusiastic exhibitors are eager to secure space for next year's show. Unusual for this early date, already more than 60% of the available space has been assigned. The combined show is expected to display 45,000 gross square feet of window fashions, wallcoverings and paint related products from 125 exhibiting companies. Products include hard and soft window coverings, decorative drapery hardware, wallcoverings, area rugs, fabrics and textile products blinds, shutters, shading systems, decorative accents and accessories, motorization, workroom supplies and equipment, manufacturing equipment, merchandising and sales tools, computer technology, paint and paint sundry products. The two events are the premier venue for the western part of the U.S. with an anticipated 3,000 retailers, dealers and designers from all parts of the U.S., Canada, Mexico and Asia. The concurrently held floor covering show, Surfaces, draws additional buyers and designers to the combined shows for a stronger cross merchandising effect between window coverings, wallcoverings, paint and floor coverings. A comprehensive seminar program combines the best of both worlds by offering topics on window coverings, wallcoverings and paint, headed by the indsutries' top experts. Seminars include future color and trends, decorating and installation, faux paint and wallcovering techniques, global market information and general business topics designed to increase designers' and retailers' business acumen. Special new product design pavilions and on-site demonstration areas add to the educational aspect of this event. Exhibitors gain additional visibility by sponsoring these areas. Las Vegas, the entertainment capital of the U.S., becomes an exciting backdrop to the Pacific Home Fashion Fair and Paint & Decorating Show. Famous entertainers, great restaurants and of course, casino excitement, all create a total convention atmosphere. The Attendee Brochure, which includes a complete guide to all events, will be mailed in late summer. For more information, please contact: Messe Frankfurt, Inc. Attn: Bryan Reid 1600 Parkwood Circle, Ste. 515 Atlanta, GA 30339 Tel: 770-984-8016 Fax: 770-984-8023 E-mail: info@usa.messefrankfurt.com Website: www.usa.messefrankfurt.com Paint & Decorating Retailers Association Attn: Connie Bodi 403 Axminister Fenton, MO 63026 Tel: 636-326-2636 Fax: 636-326-1823 E-Mail: info@PDRA.org