Holiday Shopping When, Where and How Much?

Furniture World Magazine

From WSL STRATEGIC RETAIL VOLUME 12, ISSUE 10 October 2004 www.wslstrategicretail.com Wendy Liebmann and Candace Corlett, principals Predictions for the upcoming holiday season are coming thick and fast. There are plenty to suit everyone's fancy, from a very conservative 3 percent to an absolutely splendid 6.7 percent, and all points in between. The only way we know how to figure it out is to talk to shoppers directly to understand their mood and mindset, and translate that to the upcoming season. So here's what shoppers are thinking based on what they've told us over the last six months in our How America Shops? Everyday research. Before you're overwhelm-ed by the data, here's a quick over-view: the season will be "now you see it; now you don't"; it will be late, and it will be different. How did we get to that?? Confidence: Now you see it; now you don't. In mid-summer 2004, two-third of adults said they were being "more careful about their spending." No change from December 2003. While one-in-four said their household finances had improved in the last year that was significantly fewer than in November 2002 when 45 percent said their finances had improved. One-in-five said the economy had improved in the past six months, but that was down 8 percent points from December 2003. 16 percent said a family member had lost a job in the last six months. While a 5 percent point improvement from December 2003, the same number also said a family member may lose a job in the next six months. (Now you see it-now you don't.) In back-to-school interviews in September 2004, 27 percent of teen girls and boys said they had more money to spend on clothes compared to the previous year, but 28 percent said they had less to spend. (Now you see it-now you don't.) Holiday Shopping s-t-r-e-t-c-h-e-s to ?March? Last holiday season, gift cards transformed the selling period. 62 percent of adults and 74 percent of teens said they received a gift card in lieu of the box under the tree. (To put that in perspective, teen girls received an average of 8.2 gift cards.) Two-thirds said they used the cards by end of January, one-in-four between January and March, and one-in-ten was not sure when they'd actually use it. If gift cards remain the hot item -- and they will, they will not only impact holiday sales forecasts, they will affect retail inventory planning, and first quarter 2005 sales. (Who said holiday shopping ends on December 24?) It will be different? If gift cards and Internet shopping aren't enough to change the dynamics of the season, there are also the new choices shoppers are making. The up with the brand in the late 1980s when the company was hot. The company must figure that those original teen customers (now 30- and 40-somethings) will fondly remember the brand and be ready to shop it again in its new grown-up guise. What's interesting about this Karmic boomer convergence is that all three retailers got the message (or at least announced it) at the same time. After all, between the US Census Bureau (and our How America Shops) there's been enough data to clearly support that baby boomers are a much under-served and untapped shopping audience. There are lots of them (40 million women) with money to spend. Yet few retailers and brands satisfy their passions and desires so they want to spend it.